Telecom industry revenues worldwide will exceed $2.0tn in 2012, supported by more than $330bn in capital expenditures. Infrastructure equipment sales will exceed $83bn, and sales of optical components for telecom will exceed $6.5bn. While overall revenues are expected to grow slowly, if at all, segments with above-average growth and significant incremental revenues over the next five years can be found at each level of the value chain.
For retail operators, some key growth opportunities are mobile broadband, managed and hosted IP voice, enterprise Ethernet services, music subscriptions, public cloud services, digital games, and IPTV. Wholesalers face a low-growth environment generally, although wholesale managed services offer above-average gains.
Infrastructure vendors face a business environment in which increases in overall capital expenditures will be limited by low-single-digit gains in service provider revenues. Mobile spending will grow somewhat faster than fixed due to the rollout of mobile broadband and resultant mobile traffic increases. Among the infrastructure segments, optical networking and packet switching maintain decent prospects, whereas fixed broadband equipment revenues will stagnate. Key growth product categories for infrastructure vendors are converged packet optical, ROADMs, 40G/100G networking gear, carrier Wi-Fi, and network-related services.
Demand for optical components will continue to be more volatile than in other segments. 40G/100G components represent a key opportunity here as well.
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