Broadband Network Strategies

Coverage

Service providers face significant challenges as they look to increase service revenues while minimizing their investment in new infrastructure. Although broadband provides exciting opportunities for Internet-based applications, deployment of these newer services remains on a very small scale. The access portion, or "last mile," of the network holds the key to unlocking future opportunities for both vendors and service providers. As the service-provider model changes over time, a variety of new access technologies will be introduced to leverage this last mile and enable next-generation services.

Ovum RHK's Broadband Network Strategies advisory service identifies key opportunities for current and emerging access technologies and their impact on both service providers and equipment vendors.

Business assessment

Ovum RHK addresses the following key business issues:

• Which high-speed access method will users demand?
• Which broadband services will be profitable, and how does pricing affect demand?
• Which applications and services will drive deployment of next-generation infrastructure in the access portion of the network?
• What are the drivers and inhibitors to telco video deployments around the world?
• How will triple-play evolve in the market, and how will service providers leverage it for incremental revenue?
• What are the ILEC deployment strategies for video services?
• How do regulatory environments affect broadband deployment?

Technical analysis

Ovum RHK addresses the following key technical issues:

• What is the future of each major access technology, including DSL, cable, PONs (passive optical networks), and other wireline and wireless access technologies?
• What are the implementation challenges in deploying services such as IPTV, and how will they impact the offerings that consumers will see?
• Which emerging technologies will impact DSL deployments, and which countries are more likely to deploy them?
• What is the next evolutionary step in providing more bandwidth to the home?

Research activities

Ovum RHK analysts conduct the following research and analysis:

• Market forecast and analysis based on current market conditions.
• Ongoing interviews with major service providers in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.
• Ongoing tracking of new developments in the vendor community, including new products, companies, significant orders, mergers, and acquisitions.
• Analysis of the key applications driving broadband architectures in order to determine which technologies will create new equipment opportunities.
• Market share analysis to determine the market leaders and laggards.
• End-user market surveys to develop a clear understanding of demand drivers, barriers to adoption, and packaging preferences.

Analyst team

Lynn Hutcheson, Vice President

Lynn has over 30 years of research, product development, and executive management experience in fiber-optic technologies, photonics, access networks, and HFC systems technologies.

Most recently he was a founder of Jedai Broadband Networks, a company developing optical Ethernet access networks. Jedai was recently acquired by Luxcore. Prior to founding Jedai he worked at RHK, where he co-founded and was co-director of the Optical Components group. While at RHK he provided technology and market research for optical components in the telecommunications industry. He also provided consulting services to venture capital companies, performing both market analysis and technical due diligence to assist them in making investment decisions. Additionally, he provided consulting services to start-ups and large corporations for strategic product planning, market analysis, technology evaluation, due diligence, and M&A.

Prior to RHK, Lynn served as Senior Vice President of Engineering and Technology at C-COR.net and prior to C-COR he was Vice President of Engineering for ADC Telecommunications. For the nine years prior to joining ADC, he served as Director of Engineering for Raynet/Ericsson, where he led the company's pioneering efforts to develop fiber-to-the-curb, passive optical network access system equipment for telecom providers.

Dr. Hutcheson holds eight patents. He has a Ph.D. in Optical Sciences from the University of Arizona and B.S. and M.S. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the University of Colorado.

Matt Walker, Senior Analyst

Based in Asia since 2001, Matt Walker is a senior analyst in Ovum RHK's Network Infrastructure practice, specializing in Asia-Pacific telecoms markets. He has 11 years of experience in the telecoms industry. Prior to initiating RHK's Asian optical research in 2000, Matt's work focused on emerging carriers, telecom policy, and financial issues. More recently, he has focused on network issues such as: optical network migration; carrier Ethernet; packet-optical convergence; FTTH; IPTV; IMS; and new methods of (and applications for) broadband wireless access. He is often quoted in the press and is a frequent speaker at industry events, including those managed by IIR, IBC, Reed Exhibitions, and Terrapinn.

Before joining RHK in 1998, Matt worked as an economist for Exeter Associates, a consultancy specializing in telecommunications regulation. Matt received his M.S. in Applied Economics/Public Policy Analysis and B.A. in Political Science from the University of Rochester in 1995 and 1994, respectively.

Tanya Harris, Senior Analyst, Forecasting and Analysis

Tanya Harris is responsible for market share data collection and analysis across Ovum RHK's Optical Networks, Switching and Routing, Communications Semiconductor, Broadband Network Strategies, and Optical Components services. Prior to joining Ovum RHK, Tanya held the positions of senior forecasting analyst and manager of pricing analysis with Corning Inc. Tanya received a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Kamalini Ganguly, Analyst and Service Manager

Kamalini is a member of the Network Infrastructure team, managing the Broadband Network Strategies research. She is responsible for market share and forecasts in the cable modem termination systems (CMTS), DSL access multiplexer (DSLAM), and FTTx markets as well as production of qualitative research reports.

Prior to joining Ovum, Kamalini worked for Merrill Lynch HSBC in Melbourne, Colonial First State Investments, and National Australia Bank in Sydney. Kamalini received an M.B.A. in Finance from the Carroll Graduate School of Management of Boston College and graduated with honors with a B.A. in Economics from the University of Delhi. She has been quoted in many Australian newspapers, including the Australian Financial Review, The Age, and Sydney Morning Herald.

Takehito Ichida, Analyst

Takehito Ichida brings six years of telecom industry research experience to Ovum RHK; based in Tokyo, his emphasis is on the Japanese market. Recent work has included market entry studies for U.S. and Europe as well as research into metro area networks through Asia-Pacific. Prior to joining Ovum RHK, Takehito worked for a Japanese market research company specializing in the electronics industries. While there, Takehito's work included competitive analyses of technology and system pricing, as well as network and technology planning. Previously, he worked for NTT as well as its subsidiaries and research institutes.

Research subsections/deliverables

Briefs (2-5 pages)

Short reports/research briefs on developments within the industry, including e-mail updates on industry news and happenings.

Reports (10-30 pages)

Longer reports covering broadband technologies and markets of interest. Includes a spreadsheet with vendor wins updated every month.

Market share (quarterly)

• Market share spreadsheet published at the end of every quarter with equipment shipments and revenue market share for DSL and CMTS vendors worldwide, broken down by region (NA, EMEA, AP, and CALA) and by DSL technology (ADSL, ADSL2+, SHDSL, VDSL, and other DSL).
• Market alert published with the market share spreadsheet containing a quick two-page analysis of the shipment and revenue numbers.
• Market update published two weeks after the market alert including details from vendor interviews on quarterly shipment and revenue figures and broad analysis of trends seen that quarter among service providers and vendors worldwide.

Market forecast (revised twice a year)

• Market forecast spreadsheet covering DSL (ADSL/ADSL2+, SDSL/SHDSL, VDSL, VDSL2), DSL CPE, CMTS and cable modems, FTTC, FTTP (PoP Ethernet, BPON, EPON, GPON). Forecast is broken down into seven regions: NA, LA, AP, China-India, W. Europe, E. Europe, MEA.
• Market alert published with spreadsheet containing a quick two-page analysis of broad expectations and conclusions of market forecast.
• Market forecast report published within a month with detailed regional analysis.
• Forecast methodology in PowerPoint format for quick understanding.
• The market forecast is updated twice a year.